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https://www.nytimes.com/1998/03/12/us/a ... 2028.htmlv

An asteroid is likely to pass within 30,000 miles of Earth on Oct. 26, 2028, a Thursday, and there is a possibility that it would hit Earth, the international astronomical agency that tallies the orbits of asteroids and comets announced yesterday.

Dr. Brian G. Marsden, director of the Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams at the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, Cambridge, Mass., cautioned in an interview that calculations of the asteroid's progress are approximate and that there is no immediate cause for alarm.

It is impossible to calculate the odds of an impact, Dr. Marsden said. But he appealed to astronomers with large telescopes to measure the asteroid's brightness and size, estimated to be as large as a mile in diameter, and to refine measurements of its orbit.

There is ample evidence that Earth has been frequently bombarded by asteroids and comets, some of which may have contributed to mass extinctions.

Many scientists say they believe that the impact of an asteroid or comet about six miles in diameter on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula 65 million years ago (releasing some 5 billion times more destructive energy than the atomic bomb that leveled Hiroshima) contributed to the extinction of the dinosaurs.

The impact of an asteroid one mile in diameter would have devastating global effects, including tidal waves, continent-size fires and an eruption of dust that could cause global cooling and long-term disruption of agriculture. But Dr. Marsden said such an asteroid impact would not necessarily be severe enough to wipe out the human race.

The scale of devastation could be gauged from the effects of a more recent impact. On June 30, 1908, a stony meteorite hit near the Tunguska River in Siberia. That object, later estimated as less than 100 yards across, exploded six miles above Earth. It flattened trees over nearly 900 square miles, ignited forest fires, and caused damage equivalent to that of a 15-megaton hydrogen bomb.

Asteroid 1997 XF11, as the current object is named, was discovered on Dec. 6 by Dr. James V. Scotti of the University of Arizona.
Scientists use a 36-inch-diameter telescope equipped with special instruments atop Kitt Peak, Ariz., to maintain a watch for all small objects in the solar system, especially asteroids and comets that approach Earth at dangerously close distances.

Scientists use a 36-inch-diameter telescope equipped with special instruments atop Kitt Peak, Ariz., to maintain a watch for all small objects in the solar system, especially asteroids and comets that approach Earth at dangerously close distances.

''I would say that this thing probably won't hit us,'' he said. ''But if its orbit continues to approach us, we should have a better idea before long. In the year 2000, it will be back, allowing us to improve measurements; and with its next appearance, in 2002, we should know how great the danger may be. All we know right now is that the asteroid will come interestingly close in 2028 -- probably much closer than any asteroid recorded by astronomers in the past.''

Dr. Marsden added, ''We have plenty of time -- 30 years, in fact -- to improve our knowledge of this thing and take steps, if necessary.''

The steps to which he alluded might involve detonation of a nuclear device near the asteroid to throw it off course -- a solution advocated in recent years by Dr. Edward Teller, sometimes called the father of the hydrogen bomb. Other scientists say they believe that a relatively small chemical explosion could safely divert an asteroid, if a device was detonated long enough in advance, depending on the mass of the asteroid, its trajectory and speed.

A close pass by the asteroid, Dr. Marsden said, would be a spectacular sight, particularly over Europe, because of its estimated trajectory. The asteroid is expected to make its closest pass on Oct. 26, 2028, a Thursday, at 1:30 P.M. Eastern time.

Asteroid 1997 XF11 is receding from Earth and growing fainter. Only very large telescopes can detect the asteroid. Moderate-sized telescopes will not be able to find it again until 2000. On Oct. 31, 2002, the object will come within six million miles -- a close but safe approach. By then, Dr. Marsden said, planetary astronomers should have enough data to make a much more accurate guess about what will happen in 2028

In recent years, growing awareness of the role of bombardments on the fate of the dinosaurs, and some relatively close passes by other asteroids, have generated both scientific and popular interest in hazardous traffic in the solar system.

Later this year two Hollywood movies, ''Armageddon'' and ''Deep Impact'' will try to translate this awareness into box office dollars. But the concern about Asteroid 1997 XF11 comes from cold calculation.

Dr. Tom Gehrels of the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory at the University of Arizona said he was not surprised by the discovery that the asteroid could pose a hazard to Earth.

''We have calculated on the basis of what we know of the Earth's impact history that during a human life span of 66 years, there is a 1 in 5,000 chance of a major impact,'' Dr. Gehrels said.

''That's a pretty big chance, when you think about it.'' But it has a good side. During the cold war, I used to hope that one of these hazardous asteroids would be spotted and that the discovery would unite America and the Soviet Union in a common effort to save the world. Even now we might see this Asteroid 1997 XF11 drawing people together.''

Correct it would even be more impactful than the Tunguska event depending on where it strikes and how much withstands the earths atmosphere. Hypothetically there could be tech invented to alter its coarse but asteroids like these are wayy more common than anyone seems to care for. Like Bx12 for example that had a close fly by recently, but passes every 6 years. It’s very hard to see absolutely every rock coming at you from any angle in space and I feel like we of course know a lot less than we know when it comes to astronomy bc it’s just an expansive subject